Too Close 😎

Trade season is upon us. Let’s review the relievers most likely to be involved in rumors. Three high quality arms could find their way to the market – Brad Hand, Raisel Iglesias, and Blake Treinen. Beyond the top tier, Jeurys Familia, Zach Britton, Brad Brach (setup), Joakim Soria, Adam Ottavino (setup), Shane Greene (injured), Kyle Barraclough, Drew Steckenrider (setup), Adam Conley (setup), and Fernando Rodney are expected to be shopped. Teams in search of late-innings help include the Astros, Braves, Indians, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, Phillies, and Cardinals. We can never rule out Jerry Dipoto’s Mariners either. By count, that’s at least 13 relievers for just eight clubs – not all of whom will be eager to make a swap.

Let’s first address Treinen whose Athletics are eight games above .500. In a normal season, that would translate to at least a Wild Card bid. Unfortunately, the A’s are locked in third place in the AL West and the Wild Card. In both cases, they’re eight games back of second place. Patience may be rewarded – the Mariners in particular have been fluky lucky - but the club may instead opt to cash in on their riskier assets like Treinen. Iglesias seems like a lock to be dealt unless literally every contender submits a low ball offer. Hand, meanwhile, may remain in San Diego on a club friendly contract. The Padres aim to contend soon. However, his heavy workload over recent seasons suggests it may be wise to cash out.

Those on expiring contracts, like Familia and Ottavino, could be had for a pittance. See the Kelvin Herrera trade. As these are both quality relievers, they represent a strong alternative to pricey multi-year assets like Hand, Iglesias, and Treinen. Rodney and Soria serve as a backup for teams who miss out on Familia and Ottavino. The Rockies, it should be noted, may choose to double down on contending. Others like Barraclough have multiple years of club control but aren’t good enough to justify a large return. Miami could find themselves standing pat.

Onto the stats. The last week belonged to Edwin Diaz and Seranthony Dominguez. They both recorded four saves apiece. Interestingly, I’ve been using Diaz as a comp for Dominguez since day one. It’s fun to see this juxtaposition. Diaz now has a dominating lead on the seasonal leaderboard. His 33 saves greatly outpace Craig Kimbrel’s 25 saves. The Mariners also have an absurd record in one-run games – in no small part due to Diaz. He’s on pace for over 60 saves, a plateau that was only crossed once in history – by Francisco Rodriguez in 2008.

Now, shall we go to the tiers?

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Tier 1: The Elite (2)

Aroldis Chapman, New York Yankees
Craig Kimbrel, Boston Red Sox

Chapman allowed a run while polishing off an 11-0 game on July 1. Then he was called upon the following two days. He’s likely unavailable today.

Tier 2: The Also Elite (5)

Edwin Diaz, Seattle Mariners
Kenley Jansen, Los Angeles Dodgers
Sean Doolittle, Washington Nationals
Corey Knebel, Milwaukee Brewers
Blake Treinen, Oakland Athletics

If the Mariners keep supplying one-run leads to Diaz, even this third place ranking is going to look at tad silly in retrospect. In addition to his 33 saves, he’s supplied tasty ratios and strikeout totals. Jansen, by comparison, isn’t keeping up with the strikeouts, hence a small bump down. A case could be made that Doolittle should also be ranked above Jansen, but I remain ever-wary about his long history of shoulder issues. Knebel is edging back into Kimbrelian territory. Over his last 9.1 innings, he’s allowed one solo home run along with 18.32 K/9 and 2.89 BB/9.

Tier 3: Nearly Elite (3)

Brad Hand, San Diego Padres
Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds
Brandon Morrow, Chicago Cubs

Hand and Iglesias have experienced a couple blips in recent appearances. Iglesias is due for an off day after working three straight games. Morrow has pitched well since returning from a minor injury.

Tier 4: Maybe Good? (4)

Seranthony Dominguez, Philadelphia Phillies
Cody Allen, Cleveland Indians
Felipe Vazquez, Pittsburgh Pirates
Jeurys Familia, New York Mets

The “Maybe Good?” tier label doesn’t apply to Dominguez. He’s good. On pure ability, he would rank adjacent to Treinen. However, it’s uncertain the Phillies will allow him to remain in the ninth inning role. As we gain more information, his status here will change.

Remember how I said Allen hits these rough patches then goes on a streak of dominance? Since mid-June, he’s tossed 5.2 scoreless innings with eight strikeouts. This might be the time to buy. Vazquez has pitched well recently, exhibiting no worrisome loss of command. Familia had one especially ugly outing last Wednesday. Keep an eye on him.

Tier 5: Not Bad (7)

Wade Davis, Colorado Rockies
Hector Rondon, Houston Astros
Arodys Vizcaino, Atlanta Braves
Joakim Soria, Chicago White Sox
Keone Kela, Texas Rangers
Bud Norris, St. Louis Cardinals
Joe Jimenez, Detroit Tigers

Davis picked up three saves in the last week while allowing just one solo home run. He also avoided issuing a free pass, bringing his walk-less streak to five appearances. Rondon is still holding off Ken Giles in Houston. Every week further solidifies his role. Those hoping for a Vizcaino ouster will be disappointed. A.J. Minter appears to be next in line, but he probably didn’t show enough to push Vizcaino aside.

If you’re wondering who will close after Soria is traded, that remains an open question. Jace Fry and Juan Minaya look like possible candidates. Nate Jones is progressing in his rehab. He’ll probably be traded in August. Kela hasn’t pitched for a week due to lack of opportunity. Norris retains a tenuous lead over Jordan Hicks in the St. Louis pecking order. Hicks still experiences the sort of hiccups you might expect from somebody who skipped Double- and Triple-A.

We’re getting an early look at the future in Detroit. An injury to Shane Greene has opened the door for Jimenez. He flubbed his first save chance. Fortunately, his owners were rewarded with a win. Swingman Blaine Hardy is next in line.

Tier 6: Unsettled (9)

Fernando Rodney, Minnesota Twins
Brad Boxberger, Arizona Diamondbacks
Blake Parker, Los Angeles Angels
Will Smith, San Francisco Giants
 Tyler Clippard, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Barraclough, Miami Marlins
Zach Britton, Baltimore Orioles
Sergio Romo, Jose Alvarado, Tampa Bay Rays
Wily Peralta, Kansas City Royals

Rodney is blowing saves all over the place. His job isn’t imperiled, nor is he actively hurting his fantasy owners. A 3.18 ERA, 9.85 K/9, and 17 saves are perfectly acceptable from a guy who was practically free on draft day. Boxberger remains too homer prone. He’s bounced back nicely from a four-run fiasco on June 17. The Diamondbacks will undoubtedly look to add an affordable guy like Britton, Ottavino, Familia, or Soria.

Speaking of Britton, his velocity is down two mph from his norm, and he’s struggled to avoid free passes. Even his ground ball rate is only 54.2 percent. It’s safe to say he isn’t all the way back yet. The Orioles may need to wait until August to trade him. His hefty salary should ensure he’ll pass through waivers.

Like Britton, Mark Melancon is also down a couple tics on the radar gun. As a result, the Giants – who are straining to remain relevant in the NL West – have turned to Smith for recent saves. Smith has finally rediscovered the stuff he showed back in 2015 with the Brewers. Tony Watson could also crawl into the ninth inning picture.

Barraclough has worked two days in a row – including a blown save. He may not be available today. Clippard also pitched two straight games, but he was only needed for one out yesterday. In Tampa, the situation has settled upon Romo versus righties and Alvarado against southpaws. They’re both 4.00 ERA pitchers with a little over a strikeout per inning. It’s a playable profile if you really need saves.

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Injured

Keynan Middleton, Los Angeles Angels (elbow – out for season)
***Roberto Osuna, Toronto Blue Jays (suspended until August 5)
Hunter Strickland, San Francisco Giants (hand)
Shane Greene, Detroit Tigers (shoulder strain)
Ryan Tepera, Toronto Blue Jays (elbow)

Morrow and Vizcaino are back in action after brief stints on the shelf. Greene and Tepera will take some time to heal.

The Deposed

Dominic Leone, St. Louis Cardinals (injured)
Greg Holland, St. Louis Cardinals
Cam Bedrosian, Los Angeles Angels
Nate Jones, Chicago White Sox
Alex Colome, Seattle Mariners (traded)
Tyler Clippard, Toronto Blue Jays
Brad Ziegler, Miami Marlins
Hector Neris, Philadelphia Phillies
Ken Giles, Houston Astros
Kelvin Herrera, Washington Nationals (traded)
Sam Dyson, San Francisco Giants
Brad Brach, Baltimore Orioles

Brach probably should still be the Orioles closer. The club wants to get Britton up and running for a trade deadline haul. Dyson was unable to cling to a brief opportunity.

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The Steals Department

Andrew Benintendi stretched his legs over the last week, nabbing four bags in the process. Four others – Jose Ramirez, Rougned Odor, Jarrod Dyson, and Tim Anderson – stole three bases. The season lead remains in Michael Taylor’s hands despite a diminished role. He’s nabbed 23 bases. Trea Turner, Ender Inciarte, and Dee Gordon all have 22 steals.

The easiest catchers to pick upon include Jonathan Lucroy, Robinson Chirinos, Kurt Suzuki, Devin Mesoraco, and Russell Martin.

Although Lucroy has a decent 28 percent caught stealing rate, no catcher has faced more steal attempts (57). His success has declined throughout the season too. The Indians and Astros are next on the docket. Among the big names, expect Jose Ramirez, Francisco Lindor, Jose Altuve, and Alex Bregman to show some friskiness. Widely available bargains like Rajai Davis and Tony Kemp are savvy targets.

Detroit and Boston are next up for Chirinos. Jose Iglesias is the main threat for Detroit, although JaCoby Jones and Niko Goodrum are known to try too. Bostonians like Mookie Betts and Benintendi are fully owned. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Eduardo Nunez can be found on waivers.

Brewers should enjoy running against Suzuki over the course of a four game series. However, Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich are heavily owned. Jonathan Villar has been losing playing time. Ryan Braun, Hernan Perez, and Eric Thames can’t be counted out for a cheeky steal.

Mesoraco is day to day with a head injury. Luckily, every Mets catcher is stolen base prone. The Rays and Phillies are the beneficiaries. Mallex Smith is a fantastic target against right-handed pitching. Don’t neglect Matt Duffy or Kevin Kiermaier. Aside from Cesar Hernandez, few Phillies offer stolen base prowess. Scott Kingery is a possible exception, although he struggled to do anything else.

The Jays may be the least successful at holding runners. Sadly, the Yankees aren’t a frisky offense. Didi Gregorius, Brett Gardner, Aaron Judge, and Aaron Hicks all occasionally take off. Gardner is probably your best bet.