Shall we dive right in?
Weekly Leaders
Rhys Hoskins: 6 HR
Khris Davis: 6 HR
Jonathan Schoop: 5 HR
Eugenio Suarez: 5 HR
In addition to these standout performances, Yasmani Grandal, Yonder Alonso, and Maikel Franco popped four home runs apiece. Franco probably looks like the outlier of the group – Grandal and Alonso are known to go on binges. Franco is actually in the midst of a very successful month, but I pin this on weak opponents. I found no changes to his peripherals. Regression is coming. While players occasionally improve without any change to their peripherals, I can’t think of any examples off the top of my head. Almost always, you’ll find some sign of change in batted ball type, quality, direction, swinging strike rate, or plate discipline. Be wary buying high.
If any Phillie can be bought with confidence, it’s Hoskins. After a brief stint on the disabled list in early June, he turned his season around. He’s batting .293/.378/.605 over his last 193 plate appearances. Notably, he’s trimmed his strikeout rate by closing the up-and-away hole opposing pitchers were exploiting. As we learned last year, his low swinging strike rate, 49 percent fly ball rate, and superior plate discipline can produce epic home run totals along with a healthy OBP.
Prior to this week, Davis was slumping – so much so that he fell off the top 10 projected home run leaderboard. He hit just one home run in 124 plate appearances between June 15 and July 21. Davis bounced back in a big way, launching six taters over a four game span. He’s now back to a 41 home run projection for the season. Over recent seasons, nobody has been better at producing multi-homer games.
Schoop’s miserable season has taken a turn for the better. In 87 plate appearances since July 4, he’s walloped eight home runs while batting .384/.379/.744. He’s currently riding a five-day homer streak. You might have noticed he has zero walks over the period. His breakout 2017 season coincided with a more patient approach. Granted, he was still among the most aggressive swingers in the league, but his swing rate was far below career norms. This year, he’s bounced back to the extreme aggressiveness he showed prior to 2017. He’ll never help owners in OBP leagues, although he does seem to be making healthier contact. There’s a chance for a playable batting average with loads of power.
Suarez was in the power spotlight a couple weeks ago. He’s also homered on five straight days. His hot week coincides with a long home stand at Great American Ballpark. While Suarez is a high quality hitter and a natural 20 home run threat in any venue, his home park definitely adds to his production. With 24 home runs, only an injury will prevent him from setting a new career high.
My Top 10 Projected Home Run Leaders
J.D. Martinez, Boston Red Sox: 31 HR, 47 HR projected
Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Indians: 30 HR, 44 HR projected
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels: 28 HR, 42 HR projected
Khris Davis, Oakland Athletics: 27 HR, 41 HR projected
Nolan Arenado, Colorado Rockies: 26 HR, 41 HR projected
Francisco Lindor, Cleveland Indians: 27 HR, 40 HR projected
Joey Gallo, Texas Rangers: 25 HR, 40 HR projected
Giancarlo Stanton, New York Yankees, 23 HR, 40 HR projected
Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox: 25 HR, 39 HR projected
Nelson Cruz, Seattle Mariners: 23 HR, 38 HR projected
Aaron Judge will miss the next three weeks or so after getting hit on the wrist with a pitch. It’s a relatively minor injury, but any wrist issue has the potential to sap power and bat control. The best case scenario has him taking about 150 more plate appearances this season. With 26 homers in the bank, he still has an outside chance to reach the 40 homer plateau – it’s just no longer likely.
Jesus Aguilar and Bryce Harper also project for 38 home runs. Only a few of the top sluggers improved their season-long projection over the last week. Most are trending in the wrong direction. This was always to be expected. As I’ve repeatedly pointed out, only four players reached 40 home runs last season. When the dust settles, we’ll probably have a similar total this year.
Disabled
***Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs (left shoulder discomfort)
***Jesse Winker, Cincinnati Reds (shoulder subluxation – out for season)
***Justin Turner, Los Angeles Dodgers (groin strain)
***Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants (hyperextended knee)
***Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets (calcified heels – out for season)
***Clint Frazier, New York Yankees (post-concussion syndrome)
***Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (chip fracture in right wrist)
Scott Schebler, Cincinnati Reds (shoulder sprain)
Nomar Mazara, Texas Rangers (sprained thumb)
Todd Frazier, New York Mets (back soreness)
Avisail Garcia, Chicago White Sox (right hamstring strain)
Zack Cozart, Los Angeles Angels (torn labrum – out for season)
Carlos Correa, Houston Astros (back tightness)
Lonnie Chisenhall, Cleveland Indians (calf strain)
Jay Bruce, New York Mets (right hip strain)
Gary Sanchez, New York Yankees (groin strain)
Jorge Soler, Kansas City Royals (fractured foot)
Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers (ruptured biceps tendon – out for season)
Josh Donaldson, Toronto Blue Jays (calf strain)
Franchy Cordero, San Diego Padres (forearm strain)
Corey Seager, Los Angeles Dodgers (TJS – out for season)
It was a busy week on the injury front. Eric Thames, Gleyber Torres, Mike Zunino, Albert Pujols, and Evan Longoria all returned to action. Yasiel Puig is due back today. Correa and Schebler are mere days from a activation.
Seven sluggers landed on the disabled list. Winker and Cespedes are out for the season. Winker hadn’t posted big power numbers yet, but he was mid-breakout. As we discussed, Judge is out after getting hit by a pitch on the wrist. His most obvious replacement, Frazier, is dealing with headaches. Belt, Turner, and Bryant aren’t expected to miss much more than the minimum.
Power Spotlight
Today’s spotlight will focus on an established power hitter. Every week, dozens of people ask me if it’s time to cut Michael Conforto. The 25-year-old lefty is batting a painfully disappointing .230/.353/.403 on the season. However, it was always obvious he rushed back from a serious shoulder injury. Even if the injury itself didn’t slow his early production, rust, subtle mechanical changes, and other issues could have been a factor.
Since mid-June, Conforto looks more like his normal self. He’s hitting .258/.372/.467 over the span. Even more recently, he’s red hot - .385/.452/.808 with three home runs in 31 plate appearances after the All Star Break. Obviously that’s a tiny sample and thus can be considered fluky. However, everything fits the narrative of a player finally recovering from a major injury. And we know from past experience that he can be this good.
Based on the frequency I’m asked about cutting Conforto, it’s safe to assume that many of his owners are dissatisfied. He may even be languishing on your waiver wire. A challenge trade involving a steady but unspectacular player – think David Peralta – could be all that’s needed to acquire him. In OBP and/or keeper formats, this is an especially good time to push for a swap. Owners in redraft leagues using batting average should be coy about their interest. The way I do this is by asking about a high visibility player like Jose Altuve. I’ll make an offer I know they won’t accept and pop Conforto on as the throw-in. If they want to dump him, they’ll send a counteroffer. Many of my most lopsided trade wins come via these sorts of counteroffers
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