Wednesday, August 15, 2018

Lynn Winning





I think we can all agree that the biggest move at the deadline was the Yankees acquiring Lance Lynn from the Twins. Okay, we’re not to that point yet, but Lynn has been lights out through his first two appearances with the club, tossing 11 2/3 scoreless frames with a 14/1 K/BB ratio. He allowed just two hits and pitched into the eighth inning for the first time this season in his most recent start against the White Sox on Monday.

Is it time to pick Lynn up in mixed leagues? I’ll tap the breaks a little bit on that. Lynn had a disappointing 5.10 ERA in 20 starts with the Twins prior to the trade. He walked 62 batters in 102 1/2 innings, an alarmingly high number from anything he’s done in the past. It should also be noted that he struck out 100 batters in that time, so there’s some potential here if he can get his control back in check. But we need to see more before getting back on board in most mixed leagues.

I can at least see the appeal on a matchup basis. His start against the Rangers this weekend is too risky, but Lynn lines up for probable starts against the Rays, White Sox, Orioles, and Tigers after that. The Yankees’ offense has struggled recently, but those are winnable assignments. Just something to file away for now.




Mallex Smith OF, Rays
Smith has been one of the most popular waiver wire pickups in recent weeks and for good reason. After going 1-for-5 with a run scored and two steals on Wednesday, he’s now hitting .395 with a .474 on-base percentage over his last 28 games. He’s also swiped 10 bases in that time, bringing his total to 25 for the year. Only five players have stolen more in all of MLB. The Rays have hit him leadoff in each of their last three games, so hopefully he’ll get a chance to stick there. Smith has only hit six homers in 864 plate appearances in the majors, so don’t expect any power here, but he can get on base and provide a legitimate speed boost. Feel free to add him in most formats at this point.

Ryan Madson RP, Nationals
The Nationals were already missing Sean Doolittle with a stress reaction in his left foot, but now fill-in closer Kelvin Herrera has been placed on the disabled list with right rotator cuff inflammation. Brandon Kintzler and Shawn Kelley were both shipped out of town prior to last week’s trade deadline, so Madson is now at the top of the depth chart. The 37-year-old holds a mediocre 4.32 ERA this season, but he’s allowed just one run in 10 1/3 innings with a 9/2 K/BB ratio over his last 11 appearances. He also has previous experience in the role, which should carry some weight here. The Nationals recently signed Greg Holland, but he’s been far too erratic this year to trust as the club tries to stay in contention. Doolittle has yet to be cleared to throw off a mound, so Madson could get a decent run here.

Michael Conforto OF, Mets
Conforto’s first season back from shoulder surgery has been a struggle, but he’s at least shown signs of progress of late. The 25-year-old is batting .308/.378/.523 with three homers, five doubles, nine RBI, and 13 runs scored in 18 games since the All-Star break. That’s much closer to what we expect from him when he’s at his best. Conforto’s hard-hit percentage has been down overall this year, but he ranks top-10 in the majors over the past month. He’s also in the top-five in line drive percentage during that time. It’s a small sample, but I’m not going to complain about signs of progress. He could be a really nice value the rest of the way.

Steven Souza OF, Diamondbacks
After a nagging pectoral injury essentially rendered Souza a non-factor for the first three months of the season, he’s finally getting into a groove at the plate. The 29-year-old is hitting .293/.369/.522 with 13 extra-base hits (including three homers), 19 RBI, two steals, and 11 runs scored over 24 games since returning from the disabled list on July 5. He’s knocked in 10 runs in his last nine games while hitting fourth and fifth in Arizona’s lineup. It’s a good situation for him. I don’t expect Souza to keep this up on the batting average front, but he put up 30 homers and 16 steals with the Rays last season. There’s a reason I was aggressive on him in drafts this spring.

Kyle Gibson SP, Twins

Gibson is no stranger to this column and he gets another mention here with a matchup against the Tigers on Saturday. The 30-year-old is coming off one of his shakiest outings in quite some time, as he allowed six runs (four earned) on seven hits and three walks over just five innings against the Indians. He allowed two homers in a start for the first time since June 9. Still, Gibson has been really good for the great majority of the year, even if his record doesn’t show it. Also, the Tigers’ offense is just bad. No team has scored fewer runs since the All-Star break. They are batting .203/.251/.303 as a team during that time. Yama hama. Every matchup needs to be scrutinized at this time of the year, so we can’t let this opportunity slip by.

Ryan Tepera RP, Blue Jays
Tyler Clippard RP, Blue Jays

Tuesday night was a rough one for the back-end of the Blue Jays’ bullpen, as Tepera and Ken Giles combined to allow nine runs against the Red Sox. Giles is the closer on paper right now after coming over from the Astros in the Roberto Osuna deal, but he now holds a 6.21 ERA in 37 appearances this season and wasn’t much better during his time in Triple-A last month. The secondary numbers still provide reason for optimism, but it’s far from a sure thing that he’ll find it in the short-term. This is very much a speculate-where-you-can situation, as Tepera has a 9.72 ERA in 10 appearances since coming off the disabled list while Clippard holds a 9.00 ERA in seven appearances since the All-Star break. Good luck figuring this out.

Shohei Ohtani UTIL, Angels

Ohtani stumbled with a .200/.257/.415 batting line and a 24/5 K/BB ratio in his first 71 plate appearances after returning from his partial UCL tear at the start of July, but he’s 8-for-19 (.421) with three homers, a double, and three walks over his last five games. Even with the rough patch in July, he’s sporting a .376 wOBA for the year, which ties him with A.J. Pollock for 24th among players with at least 200 plate appearances. He’s just behind names like Trevor Story and Joey Votto and just ahead of names like A.J. Pollock and Rhys Hoskins.  He’s been legitimately impressive at the plate. Ohtani is scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Saturday in hopes of returning to game action as a pitcher down the stretch, but he’s still doing enough as a hitter to warrant attention in most formats.  

Brad Peacock SP/RP, Astros
Collin McHugh SP/RP, Astros

This is mostly a dart throw on the chance that one of these guys gets a shot in the rotation with Lance McCullers expected to be out until September with a muscle strain in his right forearm. The banged-up Astros have some convenient off-days this month, so they can afford to go with four starters in the short-term. They’ll need a fifth starter next on August 22. Peacock was effective in the rotation last year and has mostly dominated out of the Astros’ bullpen this year aside from a rough patch in the early part of July. He’s looked really good in his last three appearances. McHugh has been even better out of Houston’s bullpen this season and makes for another strong option. There’s obviously an argument to keeping them where they’ve been most successful and neither pitcher has been stretched out, so I’m not sure of the bang for your buck here if we’re only talking about a couple of starts. But both pitchers are providing value in mixed leagues even though they aren’t starting, so it’s worth a shot.

Josh Bell 1B, Pirates
Tyler White 1B, Astros

I’m grouping Bell and White together as corner infielders to keep in mind in both shallow and deeper formats. Bell is fresh off the disabled list after missing just over the minimum with an oblique strain. He’s been a disappointment overall this season and I worry a little bit about him returning from his oblique issue so quickly, but he was swinging the bat well prior to going down. He’s definitely capable of finishing strong. As for White, he’s hit .321 (9-for-28) with two homers, one double, one triple, and four runs scored over eight games since returning from the minors at the end of July. The 27-year-old is seeing pretty steady at-bats with Yuli Gurriel covering for Jose Altuve at second base. He even got a chance out of the cleanup spot on Tuesday. He’s a decent short-term pickup, anyway.

Tyler Glasnow SP/RP, Rays

I pretty much have to include Glasnow here after his start on Tuesday night. He struck out nine batters in just four innings and has now allowed two runs in seven innings with a 14/1 K/BB ratio through his first two outings since coming over to the Rays in the Chris Archer deal. He’s still in the process of getting stretched out, but he should be ready for a regular workload soon enough. I think he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues on upside alone, but I’ll acknowledge that the control remains a concern. He walked 34 batters in 56 relief innings with the Pirates this year. Two brief starts isn’t enough to convince me that he has suddenly changed, so I’d be careful about going too crazy in shallow leagues just yet. There are just better bets out there right now. Still, he’s a name to follow in all formats.

Hyun-Jin Ryu SP, Dodgers

I love stashing upside plays in a DL spot, which is why the time is right to pick up Ryu. The lefty suffered a severe groin strain back in early May, but he recently began a minor league rehab stint and threw five innings of one-run ball with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Tuesday. He got stretched out to 71 pitches (51 for strikes) in that one, so he’s not far off from rejoining the Dodgers. Ryu had a sparkling 2.12 ERA and 36/10 K/BB ratio in 29 2/3 innings over six starts prior to the injury. There’s minimal risk involved with stashing and seeing how things play out down the stretch.

Shopping at the five-and-dime:


Drew Steckenrider RP, Marlins
Adam Conley RP, Marlins

It all looked so promising not too long ago, but Kyle Barraclough’s stint as the Marlins’ closer went south in a hurry, as he holds a 22.24 ERA (yes, you read that correctly) in seven appearances since the All-Star break. He’s already allowed 14 runs during that time after giving up just six earned runs in 42 1/3 innings during the entire first half. The Marlins will pitch Barraclough in lower-leverage situations in hopes of getting him back on track, with manager Don Mattingly planning to mix and match for saves in the short-term. Steckenrider (3.42 ERA and 56/21 K/BB ratio in 50 innings) probably deserves to be considered the favorite, but lefty Conley (3.45 ERA and 34/14 K/BB ratio in 31 1/3 innings) could get a look in certain matchups. Tayron Guerrero (Yahoo: 0 percent owned) is the dark horse here.

Brandon Lowe 2B, Rays
This is mainly relevant to those in deep leagues, but Lowe was called up by the Rays over the weekend and figures to play at least semi-regularly with Daniel Robertson and Tommy Pham both sidelined and Adeiny Hechavarria now out of the picture. He’s already made a couple of starts in left field, though he moved to second base in each of those games. The flexibility should serve him well down the stretch. The 24-year-old broke out between Double- and Triple-A this season by batting .297/.391/.558 with 22 homers and eight steals over 100 games. If the power translates to the majors, he could be really interesting.


AL ONLY

Joshua James SP, Astros

James deserves a mention here on the chance that he gets a shot in the Astros’ rotation with McCullers sidelined. We already mentioned McHugh and Peacock earlier. Cionel Perez, Brady Rodgers, Trent Thornton, and Rogelio Armenteros are among the other candidates. James isn’t on the 40-man roster, but this could be a logical time for a call-up since he’s going to need to be protected from December’s Rule 5 Draft. The 25-year-old has improved his stock in a big way this season by posting a 3.18 ERA with 154 strikeouts in 99 innings between Double- and Triple-A.

Taylor Ward C, Angels

The Angels moved David Fletcher to second base after the Ian Kinsler trade, which means that there’s an opportunity at third base. Luis Valbuena was recently designated for assignment, so Kaleb Cowart and Jefry Marte are splitting time there right now, but Ward is an intriguing candidate for a call-up and carries plenty of fantasy appeal. The 24-year-old has put up a ridiculous .350/.445/.533 batting line with 14 homers and 17 steals over 98 games this season between Double- and Triple-A. He’s a third baseman these days, but fortunately for fantasy owners he’s going to be catcher-eligible out of the gate.

Giddy up.

NL ONLY

Jacob Nix SP, Padres

We’ve seen some big changes in the Padres’ rotation recently and the latest is Nix being called up to make his major league debut Friday against the Phillies. Nix, a third-round pick from 2015, recently spun six scoreless innings in his first start with Triple-A El Paso after posting a stingy 2.05 ERA and 41/9 K/BB ratio in 52 2/3 innings over nine starts in Double-A. The 22-year-old got a late start on the year due to a groin strain, so there shouldn’t be any workload concerns here. He hasn’t missed many bats in the minors, but he has good control and finds himself in a favorable ballpark for matchup purposes.

Bobby Wahl RP, Mets
Anthony Swarzak is back on the disabled list with right shoulder inflammation and the Mets are trying to monitor the workloads of Robert Gsellman and Seth Lugo down the stretch, so don’t be surprised if Wahl ends up getting a couple of save chances. Acquired in the recent Jeurys Familia trade with the A’s, Wahl had a 2.20 ERA with 73 strikeouts in 45 innings at the Triple-A level this season. He required surgery last summer for thoracic outlet syndrome, but his velocity has bounced back nicely. The Mets aren’t going anywhere this season, so it makes sense for them to test their young arms in high-leverage spots. Austin Jackson  is another useful option with the Mets since he’s seeing regular time in center field right now.

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