The sight is 2020

Now that the Blue Jays seem to have officially started their rebuild, it’s a good time to commence speculation about how long the process will take to return to at least the edge of American League contention.
Now is a good time to help out general manager Ross Atkins and see what positions can be filled from within, then try to guess at what point in the next three years the Jays will begin to spend money again on free agents at positions of need, or to make true baseball trades as buyers for fill-in pieces.
 The epiphany for Jays management, knocked off their high horse and blinded by the light of reality, may have come after losing 7-0 to the Tampa Bay Rays on Aug. 10th.

Rays manager Kevin Cash fielded a lineup that included rookies at all five infield positions, including catcher. That impressive list included shortstop Willy Adames, first baseman Jake Bauers, third baseman Joey Wendle, second baseman Brandon Lowe and catcher Michael Perez.

The Rays have hung around .500 all season during their own rebuild, while the Jays have struggled.
Maybe the realization came after Jays third baseman Yangervis Solarte swung mightily and went down with a right oblique strain, this coming after Brandon Drury had been acquired from the Yankees to play third but suffered a fractured left hand, and after Josh Donaldson had been out with calf tightness for two months with no relief in sight.

 

 

Whatever the moment that actually spurred the process, the fact is that when a pair of rookies — catcher Danny Jansen and starter Sean Reid-Foley — were written into Monday’s lineup to make MLB debuts at the same time, there was no turning back.
How can this rebuild avoid a promotion of Vlad Guerrero Jr. to the majors in September if he is to be the opening-day third baseman in 2019?

Before they can look at how high their ceiling might be in 2020, they’ll have to check existing inventory and identify the floor from which they are starting.
After this season, the Jays will be shedding $52.5 million in payroll (all dollars U.S.) from their opening-day total of $162 million. Then following 2019, there will be an additional $38 million in guaranteed payroll off the books.
The only guaranteed contracts remaining for 2020 will be shortstop Troy Tulowitzki at $14 million and infielder Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at $2.9 million. The rest of the roster two years hence will either be arbitration-eligible or still under club control.
With that in mind, let’s construct a theoretical roster from players currently in the organization and use that as a floor from which to build a winner. 

 

Here is my 2020 vision:

Catcher
Danny Jansen and Luke Maile
Jansen’s path to the majors has always been toward a starting role, and nothing has changed following his debut at Kauffman Stadium. Jansen is considered better on offence than defence, but his improvement in all aspects behind the plate has been on a steady upward curve. Maile is a superior game caller and defender, throwing out more than 30 per cent of base stealers, while his offence has been a revelation in 2018.

Infielders
Gurriel (1B), Bo Bichette (2B), Guerrero (3B), Troy Tulowitzki (SS), Brandon Drury, Aledmys Diaz, Rowdy Tellez
 
If the Jays can’t trade the final two seasons of Tulowitzki’s contract worth $38 million — which will be a near-impossible task — they could do much worse than hanging on to the all-star shortstop as a clubhouse influence, a role he has filled wherever he has played. He can still play if healthy and will just be 35 in 2020. As for the rest, there is no doubt they will keep Guerrero at third base for the beginning of his career, while the belief with the toolsy Bichette is that he might have to shift from short to second in the majors. The biggest stretch is to list Gurriel as a first baseman. He is big enough and athletic enough to play that corner-infield spot, and if the lefty-hitting Tellez is also on the roster it would allow Gurriel to play other positions if necessary. With Drury and Diaz on the bench, there would be plenty of versatility to fill in at any infield position.

Outfielders

Anthony Alford (CF), Randal Grichuk (RF), Teoscar Hernandez (LF), Billy McKinney
Alford, at 24 years old, is still considered one of the game’s top prospects, but is taking longer than expected to refine his baseball skills after playing football in high school and college. Alford and Grichuk are legitimate centre fielders. Hernandez is the least skilled defensively of the group, but has major-league bat speed and needs only to refine his strike recognition. McKinney will still only be 25 years old on opening day in 2020 and has not lost his status as a top prospect, despite being with his fourth organization. McKinney and Tellez are the only left-handed hitters in this projected group of position players. The average age would be 27.5, with just Tulowitzki older than 30.

Conclusion
This is obviously not meant to define what the Jays’ rebuild will look like when completed. It’s a guide to the areas the Jays would need to fill in order to reach the goal they want to attain, in the second half of 2020 or 2021 at the latest. As for free agency, a preliminary count shows more than 30 significant position players will become available after the 2019 season. If the Jays choose not to take advantage and fill in from outside, then the rebuild will continue and fans will flee.