One dominant pitch does not a good starter make.
On the contrary, the list of starters who have had success
in the majors as a one-trick pony is short -- even a guy like Brandon
Webb, who regularly threw his sinker more than 70 percent of the time,
had a second pitch. The Mariano Riveras and Kenley Jansens of the world
dominate with one pitch, but there’s a reason they’ve done it one inning
at a time.
That doesn’t mean, though, that having a singular pitch that excels doesn't correlate strongly with success. For every pitch is laden with guys having successful years. It stands
to reason -- if you do something that well, and can back it up with
secondary offerings that are passable, you are probably near the top of
your class.
Let’s take a look at a few of the guys having the most success with individual pitches this year.
Hyun-Jin Ryu’s change up
Ryu is actually generating positive value with three of his
four offerings -- his fastball is actually tops in terms of average,
not cumulative, value among qualified pitchers, and his cutter is above
average as well -- but it’s his changeup that has held the key to his
brilliant first half. He’s throwing the pitch more than 26 percent of
the time, the highest rate of his career, and he’s generating both
whiffs and bad contact with it. To that end: opponents are hitting
.164/.168/.246, a .414 OPS, against his change this season. It’s not a
pitch that’s come out of nowhere, but it is one that the 32-year-old has
refined and turned into a weapon over time. Health has long been the
thing getting in Ryu’s way, but good fortune and that dominant changeup
have probably put him in line to start the All-Star Game with his 9-1
record, 1.27 ERA, 0.84 WHIP and 90/6 K/BB ratio across 99 innings of
work to date.
Justin Verlander’s slider
It’s hard to believe a pitcher of Verlander’s ilk has
reinvented himself at age 36, but that appears to be what he’s done this
year, at least to this point. Long relying on a fastball that, by
Fangraphs’ Pitch Value, has annually been the best in the game,
Verlander this year is throwing his fastball less than 51 percent of the
time, easily the lowest mark of his storied career. In its place,
Verlander is throwing his breaking pitches more often, and with huge
success. The value of his slider on a per-pitch basis is 4.57 per 100
pitches; the next closest is Max Scherzer
at 3.23. He’s basically lapping the field, and it’s helped him stay on
top of the game despite his usually-reliable fastball being a pedestrian
offering for him this year. Great pitchers adapt, and he’s one of the
best. You can’t argue with the results, either -- the right-hander is
sporting a 2.59 ERA with 133 strikeouts over 16 starts this year.
Yu Darvish’s cutter
Unlike the rest of the guys on this list, there’s not a lot
to praise about Darvish’s 2019 to this point. One bright spot has been
his cutter, and it’s not a coincidence that he’s improved in recent
weeks as he’s thrown the pitch more frequently. He’s relied on it twice
as much this year as he has over the course of his career, throwing the
cutter 30 percent of the time -- and he’s finding success, with a pitch
value of 3.19 per 100 pitches, almost a full point higher than the next
guy. His usage has been even higher in recent starts, with Darvish
throwing the pitch 35 times in 89 pitches -- 39.3 percent -- in his most
recent outing against the Mets on Friday. Homers and walks have been
sinking him, and he’ll never thrive if those don’t improve, even with a
shiny new (well, newly effective) pitch, but there are at least signs
that he’s moving in a good direction. Optimists might find this a good
time to buy low on the 32-year-old.
Charlie Morton’s curveball
If Verlander is the most recent high-profile example of a
pitcher reinventing himself, Morton is on the Mount Rushmore. Morton was
a sinker-reliant, mediocre pitcher before he overhauled his approach in
2016, throwing fewer sinkers and more breaking pitches. That
reimagination has continued in recent years, to where he’s now throwing a
sinker 22.5 percent of the time while throwing his four-seamer -- a
pitch that helped him pick up a few ticks of velocity, which has played a
part in his renaissance -- nearly 25 percent of the time and his
curveball a whopping 36.2 percent, basically every third pitch. That
frequency has been effective, too, with Morton leading the league in
curveball pitch value at 15.0. It’s helped him not only lengthen his
career but also jettison into the list of the best pitchers in today’s
game. That he’s throwing his curveball more than ever this season and is
finding even more success shows the 35-year-old hasn’t stopped evolving
yet, a scary thing for the opposition.
Yonny Chirinos’ splitter
Chirinos is one of only a handful of guys who throws a
splitter with any consistency, and he’s one of the even fewer who has
had good results this year. The 25-year-old throws the pitch roughly 22
percent of the time, mixing it in with a sinker and a slider, and
hitters are batting .113/.125/.169 -- a .294 OPS! -- against it. He uses
the pitch as his finishing move, generating plenty of two-strike
whiffs, but he also gets a ton of ground balls with it. It’s why,
despite a relatively average 21.1 percent strikeout percentage, Chirinos
has been able to post a 3.00 ERA and 0.97 WHIP through 87 innings of
work. With the pitch being so singularly dominant, the next step in his
progression could be to throw it even more often, like Masahiro Tanaka. If that happens, watch out.
Lucas gone a - hunting |
Lucas Giolito’s arsenal
It would be wrong to call Giolito a jack of all trades but a
master of none; he’s proven fairly masterful in this, his breakout
season. What is true is that while he’s not at the tip-top for value of
any one pitch, he’s in the conversation with three different offerings.
His 94-mph four-seamer leads the way, with a value of 10.3, but his change up is actually his best pitch by average value at 2.98. Not to be
forgotten, his slider also checks in as a plus pitch at 1.96 per 100
pitches. He does a good job mixing them, too -- he throws his
four-seamer 55 percent of the time, his change up 24 percent and his
slider 14 percent. It’s that arsenal that made him such a highly touted
prospect and also surely what frustrated fans, fantasy players and the
White Sox front office when he struggled so mightily before 2019. The
same talent is what makes his 2.74 ERA, 1.02 WHIP and 104 strikeouts in
85 1/3 innings of work seem viable despite such a short track record of
success in the majors. The light seems to have turned on, and it’s
burning bright.
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