Speed KIlls

Who's this guy ?

 Chicks dig the long ball.

 Fantasy players? Meh.

With homers as prevalent as they are these days, a much more appealing trait has emerged: speed. Chicks may dig the long ball, but speed, well, speed kills. 

As homers have gone up, stolen bases have gone the other direction in recent years. Last year’s 2,474 stolen bases was the lowest single-season total since the league expanded to 30 teams. The next three? The 2015, 2017 and 2016 seasons, respectively.

This season is trending in a similar direction. Heading into the weekend, the league was averaging 0.47 stolen bases per game. The 2018 average was 0.51 steals per game.

And yet, few fantasy leagues, if any, have changed their formats to lessen the value of the steal. As a result, as steals become more finite, guys who can steal bases and contribute to a fantasy team in other areas become more valuable.

With the help of Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard, let’s see what we can make of some players’ ability to run fast.

Tim Locastro ( the guy in the photo above )

As expected, the fastest runner tracked by Statcast this year has been Billy Hamilton Adalberto Mondesi Whit Merrifield seriously just name a Royals player … Tim Locastro? Locastro, a 13th-round pick of the Blue Jays in 2013 who’s been traded three times -- twice for guys nobody has heard of, and once for international bonus slot money -- is getting a look in the Diamondbacks outfield and has stolen four bases in 19 games this year, thanks in large part to a sprint speed of 30.5 feet per second. That’s ahead of guys like Terrance Gore, Byron Buxton, Trea Turner and the aforementioned Mondesi. Locastro has always had speed to burn and, unlike some of his speedy peers, he’s also a decent hitter, owning a .293/.378/.417 line across seven minor league seasons. With David Peralta still sidelined with a shoulder injury, the 26-year-old Locastro should continue to get some run in the D’backs outfield, and run he can.

Trevor Story

Even after Story broke out to steal 27 bases in 2018, doubters remained. The skepticism was, on its face, fair -- he stole just seven bases in 145 games in 2017 and was just 8-for-13 in his rookie year in 2016 -- but a closer look reveals that the shortstop has long been one of the fastest players in the game. To wit, his sprint speed ranks since his 2016 debut: 14th in 2016; 26th in 2017; 15th in 2018. This year, it’s more of the same, as Story is being clocked as the 19th-fastest player in the league. That’s faster than rabbits like Mallex Smith, Greg Allen and Jarrod Dyson. It’s showing up in the scorebook, too, as Story has 10 stolen bases to show for it. His power, especially in a place like Coors Field where it’s magnified, will likely always be his calling card, but the 26-year-old is proving that he’s much more of a five-tool player than most believe.

Yadier Molina

Molina is currently shelved with a thumb injury, but when he’s on the field he’s not the fleetest of foot. That’s being kind -- the backstop is in the second percentile in sprint speed. Where Locastro runs 30.5 feet per second, Molina hoofs it at a snail-like 22.8 feet per second, good for 409th in the majors. And yet, the 36-year-old is one of the most prolific base-stealers at his position year in and year out. All time, Molina is tied for 44th among catchers with 64 stolen bases, and his four swipes lead all catchers this season. More than JT Realmuto. More than Jorge Alfaro. More than anyone. The plodding veteran is a good reminder that there’s more to stealing bases than running fast, even if this list serves to highlight a handful of guys at the other end of the spectrum.

Avisail Garcia

Those paying attention to the Rays this year (insert tired attendance joke here) have perhaps noticed an odd name atop their lineup on occasion -- Garcia’s. Not known for his speed, the 27-year-old has batted leadoff in four games this year, with good results: he’s hit .438/.471/1.063 in 17 plate appearances. And while none of his six steals have come from the leadoff position, the designation speaks to both Garcia’s sneaky speed and Rays manager Kevin Cash’s belief in it. That Garcia can run is nothing new; his 28.7 feet per second is actually slightly lower than in years past. The difference this year is that, so far at least, he’s been able to cash in on it. The outfielder/designated hitter’s six steals are one shy of his single-season high, and he’s never swiped double-digit bags in a season. He seems on track to hit that mark this year, and could even approach 20 if he continues to push (his eight attempts in 47 games this year also puts him on pace to set a career high for attempts). Factor in that he’s hitting .301/.363/.522 with 10 homers at the dish and it could be a year to remember for Garcia.

Nick Senzel

In the same vein as Garcia, as a prospect, Senzel was better known as a hitter than as a runner. Upon his arrival in the majors, though, the story quickly became about his speed, too, as Senzel stole five bases in his first 16 games. He hasn’t swiped any more since then, but the barrage didn’t come out of nowhere -- his sprint speed of 28.9 feet per second is in the 92nd percentile among major leaguers. Reds manager David Bell was quick to insert Senzel into the leadoff spot, playing him there in 22 of his first 26 games, a move that has also helped with his counting stats. Batting .276/.341/.466 with four homers and five steals to date, the 23-year-old has become a dual threat quicker than some might have imagined. That’s a great thing for fantasy players who got in early on the top prospect.

Jose Ramirez

Ramirez’s 14 steals are third-most in the majors, not a surprising fact after he stole 34 bases in 2018. A more surprising statistic? In terms of sprint speed, J-Ram is perfectly average, the 224th-fastest player in the majors. Like Molina, Ramirez, who is 14-for-16 this year, gets by on more than just athleticism, but unlike Molina, the 26-year-old does have some skills to pair with the smarts. He’s needed it to help him stay afloat, fantasy-wise, amidst an otherwise dreadful start to the year, batting .209/.311/.318 with four homers through Friday’s games. That he gets on base at a decent clip despite his struggles only serves to give him more chances at making an impact on the base-paths, and when the bat does come around -- assuming it will -- that’s a lot of opportunity to run. Fantasy players disheartened with their first-round pick can at least take solace in the fact that he’s doing something well.