Dingers, taters and long balls

As was foretold in the ancient past (April), the league wide home run pace has continued to climb with no signs of slowing. Last week, the league was on pace for 6,537 home runs. After another seven days and 267 big flies, the pace has now climbed to 6,591. I foresee more home for growth. There’s a chance for the league to beat the previous home run record of 6,105 by as many as 600 homers. That’s like stuffing an extra 10 Mark McGwire’s into the league stats.


It’s small wonder the homer pace is accelerating. In our last column, hardly anybody reached the four-homer plateau. This time around, the top eight combined for 34 blasts. Blackmon and Jimenez led the way. The Rockies outfielder is on fire in recent weeks. After a slow start to the early-season, Blackmon is hitting .373/.423/.800 with 14 home runs in his last 163 plate appearances. Unsurprisingly, his April slump coincided with a period of just four games at Coors Field. Thirteen of his 15 total home runs have come at home in 117 plate appearances despite taking 136 plate appearances on the road.

A month-long stint on the injured list seems to have served Jimenez well. Since returning, he’s batting .253/.311/.590 with eight home runs in 90 plate appearances. It’s easy to see why he’s succeeding – Jimenez is swinging at fewer pitches outside of the strike zone. There are still issues with his high whiff and ground ball rates which will prevent him from being among the league leaders. Over time, those traits may improve.
Muncy has picked up exactly where he left off last season. Although he’s whiffing a little more frequently this year, it hasn’t affected his strikeout rate because he’s become much more aggressive on pitches inside the zone. Muncy succeeded in 2018 despite a penchant for passivity. The current iteration can be described as extremely disciplined. There’s a fine line between passive and discipline. Hitters who fall on the right side of the line (discipline) are monsters.

Scott Kingery is by far the most surprising inclusion in this group of eight sluggers. Presently, a .395 BABIP has buoyed his production enough to make up for serious contact issues. While his plate discipline has also improved, it’s still below average. He’s making a boatload of hard contact which helps to explain his success to date. I expect to see some regression. At this point, he’ll start everyday in center field or third base.
The other four to mash this week are sluggers with whom we’re very familiar. Encarnacion managed the feat despite playing in only four games. He’s nursing a sore back. It’s nice to see Schwarber and Olson do what they’re best known for – power binges. Rendon would be an MVP candidate in a normal season. Alas, he’s a distant also-ran behind Christian Yelich and Cody Bellinger.

A total of 16 players are now projected to reach the 40-homer plateau. Yelich has climbed from a preseason projection of roughly 28 home runs to within a hair of 50. Not to be confused with a projection, 27 players are on pace to reach 40 home runs. “Pace” is not science. It’s a poor method for building expectations about the future.
Joc Pederson was bumped from the Top 10 this week in deference to Renfroe. He surged all the way to fourth on the list due to a hot week and an adjustment to his plate appearances. Despite Reyes’ early success in 2019, Renfroe has emerged as the superior hitter. If the Padres ever decide they can’t afford a defensive outfield of Reyes, Wil Myers, and Renfroe, I now expect Reyes to draw the short straw. For anybody who hasn’t been keeping track, Moustakas has now hit eight home runs in his last 57 plate appearances.