The National Crisis

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo says he is not even considering the possibility of trading Max Scherzer. But if the Nats decide to listen to offers for their ace right-hander, the interest likely would be intense, and not simply because Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young award winner who remains an elite performer at age 34.
 

The massive deferrals in Scherzer’s contract reduce the amount he will be paid in the near term, potentially increasing his appeal to both big spenders and small. Scherzer is owed the second $7.5 million portion of a $15 million payout for this season, plus $15 million in both 2020 and ‘21. He will receive additional $15 million payments, deferred without interest, from ‘22 to ‘28. 

In an interview on Friday, Rizzo continued to talk about the Nationals as a potential contender, saying, “You build these teams to compete for championships.” The Nats, however, are six games under .500, 8 1/2 games back in the NL East, and 1-2 to start a critical 11-game homestand against the Diamondbacks and the two teams Washington is chasing in the NL East, the Phillies and Braves.
A 12-4 surge prior to this stretch had the Nationals believing they were on the verge of a turnaround. A failure to regain momentum quickly will increase the chances they listen to offers for veterans such as Scherzer, potential free-agent third baseman Anthony Rendon and closer Sean Doolittle.
Asked specifically about Scherzer, Rizzo said, “We’re certainly not thinking about that right now. We control the best pitcher in baseball for 2 1/2 more years – three playoff runs. He’s extremely well-priced. If you look at his contract, he’s extremely, extremely well-priced. We would have to command something that would be franchise-altering to consider moving him.”
The unique structure of Scherzer’s contract would not help clubs trying to stay under the luxury-tax threshold – his annual charge, based on the average salary in his seven-year, $210 million contract with the Nationals, is $30 million. The Nats, however, could lower that number by including cash in a trade, reducing the financial burden for a prospective suitor in exchange for a better return.
Scherzer would be the prize of the starting-pitching market if he became available – he leads the NL with 99 1/3 innings and 33.6 percent strikeout rate, and ranks sixth with a 2.81 ERA. If the Nats are to trade him, their best chance would be within the next 6 1/2 weeks, before Scherzer gains control of the process.

The Nationals did not award Scherzer a no-trade clause when they signed him to his free-agent contract in January 2015. But baseball this season is introducing a single trade deadline on July 31, and Scherzer at the end of the season will gain full no-trade protection as a 10-and-5 player – 10 years of service, five consecutively with the same club.
Until then, he is powerless to block a trade.
“I have zero control over that. It means nothing to me,” Scherzer said on Saturday. “I’m here to win here. I have too much to worry about, trying to pitch and prepare every fifth day. Why (expend) any mental capacity on it at all when it’s completely out of my control? If we turn the corner here and win, we don’t even have to talk about it.”
Even if the Nationals fail to recover, they might prefer to retool around Scherzer rather than move him. The Nats exceeded the luxury-tax threshold in each of the past two seasons, spending more than $400 million combined in player payroll. A trade of Scherzer would represent almost a complete reversal at a time when the team’s attendance already is in decline, dropping from 31,620 in 2018 to 28,115 this season, through 33 home dates.

A trade of Rendon, who is eligible for free agency at the end of the season, also would not be a certainty. As previously reported, the Nats had a deal in place to send outfielder Bryce Harper to the Astros at last year’s deadline, but ownership quashed the possibility. Harper at the time was in the same contractual position as Rendon is now, and the two are represented by the same agent, Scott Boras.
Rendon, 29, is third in the National League in both OPS and FanGraphs’ version of Wins Above Replacement (fWAR), and might be even more valuable to the Nationals than Harper was. The Nats had an abundance of outfielders to replace Harper. They do not have a third baseman in their system to replace Rendon.
Rendon has said he wants to stay in Washington and the Nats have said they want to keep him, but Boras generally prefers his clients to establish their values on the open market. On May 22, Rizzo told Washington radio station FM 106.7 The Fan that the team was “aggressively” trying to sign Rendon. On Friday, he said, “We’ve gone back and forth with offers and counter-proposals fairly recently.”
The return in a trade for Rendon almost certainly would beat the draft pick the Nats would receive if he left as a free agent, but it would not necessarily be a game changer. Few contenders need a third baseman, and Rendon – like Manny Machado a year ago – would be strictly a rental. The Orioles acquired five minor leaguers from the Dodgers for Machado, but only one was a headliner – outfielder Yusniel Diaz.

Scherzer likely would yield a better package, particularly if the Nationals included significant cash, but such a move would be difficult for Rizzo personally as well as professionally. Rizzo was the Diamondbacks’ scouting director when the team drafted Scherzer out of the University of Missouri with the 11th pick of the 2006 draft.
“I’ve never been closer to a player in my career,” Rizzo said. “I drafted him in Arizona. I watched him grow up. We went hard after him (in free agency). We made him a promise that if you’re signing for seven years and you’re deferring all this money to help us win championships, we’re going to do everything we can to win.”
The Nats have maintained that commitment, opening the season with the game’s fifth-highest payroll, according to the Associated Press. But Rendon, shortstop Trea Turner, outfielder Juan Soto and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman are among their stalwarts who have spent time on the injured list. The team’s bullpen, even after a recent uptick, remains last in the majors with a 6.23 ERA.

“We’ve dug ourselves a big hole. But we’ve dug it early enough where hopefully we can respond,” Rizzo said. “We all build these teams to win championships. But you also have to be flexible and open-minded enough to know when you have to make changes and go in a different direction.”
The days and weeks ahead will determine whether the Nationals shift direction, and the extent of the changes they are willing to make.

It will fascinating to follow this story as it develops, after all, it is a National Crisis.