It looks like the Orioles are open for business, with one very important exception, that being Manny Machado. Maybe that’s for the best. The market for Machado, or at least the market the Orioles would much prefer to explore, isn’t very strong right now.
I write that not because Machado is having a bad year. He certainly is by his lofty standards, but he’s hitting the ball extremely hard and there’s still every reason to think a big second half is on the way. I doubt the league is down on him.
Still, most of the contenders aren’t looking for third basemen or even shortstops, with the exception of the two destinations the Orioles -- or, more specifically, owner Peter Angelos -- would loathe dealing with here. Angelos doesn’t want his superstar playing for the Red Sox or Yankees. He’d almost certainly take a worse deal to get Machado out of the AL East.
But who else would step up? The Dodgers, Nationals and Cubs are all set when it comes to third base and shortstop. It’d be fascinating to see the Astros swap Alex Bregman for Machado, but doing so would have huge ramifications for their budget in future years. Cleveland? It’s a nice thought, but the team isn’t that aggressive. The Angels have nothing to offer. The Cardinals probably won’t be willing to add that much to the budget and decimate their system in one fell swoop.
The Orioles really need the Phillies or, more likely, the Braves to step up in order for a Machado trade to work. Both have oodles of young talent. The Braves, though, probably have more of the pitching the Orioles desire and a clearer path to contention before Machado becomes a free agent after next season. A trade makes a lot more sense for them than the Phillies, who can keep their young talent and then, with next to no financial obligations going forward, outbid everyone for Machado’s services should he make it to free agency. That said, I still think it makes more sense of the Braves to sit on their assets. They might not need a lot of outside help in order to emerge as serious contenders within the next couple of years.
If Machado is dealt, it likely won’t be until the winter. Zach Britton, another free agent after next year, seems a whole lot more likely to go, and his fantasy owners should be nervous about the idea of him setting up for the Dodgers. Britton’s departure could put Brad Brach back into the closer’s role in Baltimore, but he’s another candidate to go. Darren O’Day is in the same boat; he’d probably close if the top two guys are traded, but he could also be traded, perhaps in an August deal. It’s a bad time to be relying on a Baltimore reliever for saves.
Kevin Gausman’s name isn’t getting mentioned much in trade talks, but the Orioles are clearly frustrated by his struggles -- they talked about demoting him to the minors -- and might be willing to move on. The price tag would still be rather formidable, but he’d be a nice get anyway.
The offense isn’t looking at as many defections. Adam Jones isn’t going anywhere, and the contracts of Chris Davis and Mark Trumbo won’t draw interest in disappointing years from them. It’s really just Seth Smith likely to go, and while Smith is about as reliable of a platoon bat that exists in the league, there isn’t much in the way of fantasy ramifications there.
American League notes
- The Blue Jays are also looking like sellers, though it seems likely that they’ll be limited in what they do, since they intend to compete in 2018. For that reason, trades involving Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman or Roberto Osuna seem like big long shots. Even Justin Smoak, who is owed a modest $4.125 million next year with a 2019 option, is likely to stay. I might argue for cashing in Smoak, but with the Yankees getting Todd Frazier, now no contender has a big need at first base.
Unfortunately, the Jays probably aren’t looking at big returns from the guys they would prefer to move: Jose Bautista, Marco Estrada, Francisco Liriano, Kendrys Morales and Joe Smith. Bautista has a .749 OPS and no range in the outfield. Estrada had a 3.15 ERA at the end of May, but he’s 0-4 with a 9.50 ERA in his last eighth outings. Liriano’s ERA stands at 6.04. If I were the Mariners or Twins, I’d try to steal away an Estrada-Smith package for a couple of prospects and hope that Estrada, whose velocity is fine and whose strikeout rate remains very strong, gets this turned around. The large-market teams will probably try to do better.
- Aaron Sanchez’s velocity has been normal since he came off the disabled list at the beginning of month, but his command was much better Friday against the Tigers than in his first start back against the Astros. I still don’t entirely trust him -- the modest strikeout rate is going to be a bigger problem for him if he doesn’t get his groundball rate up -- but he’s a decent enough mixed-league play right now.
- Carlos Correa’s thumb injury, expected to sideline him for 6-8 weeks, would be a much bigger deal if the Astros weren’t 15 games up in the AL West. They’re planning on leaving Bregman at third and going with Marwin Gonzalez at short while Correa is out. I’d rather see Bregman at short, but it’s good news for his fantasy value anyway, since he won’t be losing starts to Gonzalez. Colin Moran, who has looked like trade bait, is Correa’s replacement on the roster. He was having easily his most impressive minor league season to date, hitting .308/.373/.543 with 18 homers for Triple-A Fresno. Still, he’s probably looking at limited at-bats and little AL-only value.
- The Yankees had to part with just one quality prospect, 2016 first-rounder Blake Rutherford, in order to land Frazier, David Robertson and Tommy Kahnle from the White Sox. Frazier presumably takes over at first base with Greg Bird (ankle) no longer an option, though he could always go back to third if Chase Headley resumes struggling. And one can’t completely rule out a Yonder Alonso acquisition if the price is right (given the return for J.D. Martinez and the scant market for first basemen, it just might be).
Robertson will help set up for the Yankees, taking away most all of his fantasy value in mixed leagues. Kahnle was supposed to be his replacement in Chicago, but now that’s not happening. Tyler Clippard, included in the trade for financial purposes, might get the first crack at the ninth for the White Sox. Certainly, their preference would be for him to build some trade value and go in a deal next month. That’s more likely to happen if he can get a few saves before then. On merit, Anthony Swarzak would be the better choice to close. Still, merit doesn’t matter much with the team tanking.
- Yoan Moncada is coming up to replace Frazier, though he’ll play second base. Arguably baseball’s top prospect, he was hitting .285/.381/.452 with 12 homers and 17 steals in 305 at-bats for Triple-A Charlotte. He’ll probably strike out too often to hit for average in the majors anytime soon, but he should still be worth playing in mixed leagues right away.
- The Yankees’ Frazier acquisition had the added bonus of taking away Boston’s top target for the hot corner. Still, there is no shortage of third basemen available and no other contender would seem to have much interest in upgrading there. The Royals will almost certainly hold on to Mike Moustakas, but Eduardo Nunez, Jed Lowrie and Martin Prado, Josh Harrison and Yangervis Solarte are all out there as possibilities. Long-term options like Maikel Franco and Nicholas Castellanos could also be available, though the Red Sox have top prospect Rafael Devers to break in at some point.
- With the Tigers apparently moving closer to dealing Justin Wilson, it should be noted that Bruce Rondon has been better than either Shane Greene or Alex Wilson of late. Rondon has allowed three runs (all coming in one outing) and posted a 10/4 K/BB ratio over 6 2/3 innings since being recalled from the minors on June 23. Over the last month, Greene has a 6.97 ERA, with 11 walks in 10 1/3 innings, and Alex Wilson has a 7.04 ERA in 7 2/3 innings. I prefer Greene of those three relievers, but Rondon might lead the way in a closer committee if he’s still out-pitching the others when a deal is consummated.
- AL-only leaguers might want to grab Chris Carter in any leagues in which he was dropped. It seems likely that he’ll sign with the A’s, putting him in line to take over as their first baseman if Alonso is dealt.
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