I’ll say Angels closer Bud Norris, who grabbed the ninth-inning job after Cam Bedrosian went down with a groin injury in late April and has held on through Bedrosian’s return. Huston Street (groin) is due back from the disabled list after the All-Star break, but he won’t be a challenger to Norris either.
Norris earned his 13th save Sunday in the
Angels’ first-half finale against the Rangers, striking out one batter
in a spotless frame. For the season, the 32-year-old right-hander boasts
a 2.23 ERA, 1.046 WHIP, and 47/14 K/BB ratio in 36 1/3 innings. A
full-time reliever for the first time in his career, he’s registered a
personal-best strikeout rate on the back of a personal-best average
fastball velocity of 94.2 mph.
The big worry for Norris’ fantasy owners is
that he will be traded ahead of the July 31 deadline, into a setup role
on a contending team. He is an impending free agent and the Angels are
two games under .500 with no chance of catching the Astros in the
American League West standings and only an outside shot at a Wild Card
berth. Norris may very well be pitching himself out of Anaheim, and out
of fantasy prominence. It’s something that hangs over many closers on
non-contending clubs as front offices prepare for the
wheeling-and-dealing phase of the regular season.
Alex Wood wasn’t even a sure thing to begin the season in the Dodgers’ starting rotation, but he was one of the best pitchers in the major leagues during the first half. In addition to his 10-0 record — hey, pitcher wins matter in the fantasy game — he’s sporting a 1.67 ERA and 97/22 K/BB ratio over 80 2/3 innings. That makes him the No. 4 ranked pitcher in Yahoo leagues behind only Max Scherzer, teammate Clayton Kershaw, and Chris Sale. Elite of the elite with that group.
Wood has been a useful fantasy pitcher in
the past. The 26-year-old southpaw posted a 3.35 ERA (111 ERA+) in 77
starts and 35 relief appearances between 2013-2016. But he has taken
things to a new level this year thanks to an uptick in velocity and a
shift in his pitch mix. Previously averaging around right around 90 mph
with his fastball, he has checked in at 92.5 mph on the pitch this year
while relying more on his changeup. It’s hard to argue with the results.
Not only is he blowing his previous swinging strike percentage out of
the water, but his ground ball percentage is among the highest in the
game.
The advanced metrics are backing up what
Wood is doing, as he’s tops in the majors (min. 80 IP) in both FIP
(2.03) and xFIP (2.57). Meanwhile, he ranks third in SIERA (2.81) behind
only Sale and Scherzer. It’s unfair to expect him to maintain a
sub-2.00 ERA, but there’s nothing to suggest what he’s doing is a fluke.
The only thing that could hold him back is himself. Wood had a brief
stint on the disabled list during the first half due to left SC joint
inflammation and he dealt with an elbow issue last year. So my concerns
are more health-based than performance-based.
I had pretty much written Jimmy Nelson
off for fantasy purposes coming into this season. He's a former top-100
prospect who had shown us spurts of mixed league viability in the past,
but the righty had been a headache more often than not with a career
4.38 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 353/75 K/BB ratio over 436 innings coming into
2017. He managed to lead all pitchers with 86 walks last season even
though he ranked just 50th with his 179 1/3 innings.
Something seems to have clicked with Nelson
this season, though. While many starters' performances have gone in the
wrong direction, Nelson has pitched the best ball of his career with a
3.30 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 118/27 K/BB ratio across 109 frames. He boasts a
2.58 ERA and 95/17 K/BB ratio over 80 1/3 innings since the start of
May, and he has four 10+ strikeout games over that stretch. A changed
arm slot that's led to better breaking balls seems to be a big driver of
Nelson's success, as our pals Paul Sporer and Eno Sarris touched on in a recent podcast
for Fan Graphs. Nelson has slashed his walk rate and bumped his
strikeout rate up significantly, all the while continuing to induce
grounders at a near-50 percent clip. He's also held left-handed batters
to a sub-.700 OPS, which is huge since they've often tormented him in
the past.
I have a tough time fully buying into
Nelson's improved control given how wild he's been in the past, and any
regression there could lead to trouble when you're calling Miller Park
home. That said, I'm comfortable in projecting Nelson to continue being a
mixed league asset after the break even if the walk rate comes up a
bit.
With Aaron Judge
starring in both the Home Run Derby and the All-Star Game this week, it
can be easy to forget just how poor of an initial impression the
slugger made after being called up last August. The hulking outfielder
homered in his first big league at-bat before proceeding to fall flat on
his face as his first go-around with the Yankees progressed. Notably,
Judge hit just .179 while striking out 42 times in 84 at-bats. He was
readily available -- and for good reason -- in the back ends of fantasy
drafts this spring. Indeed, he looked so unprepared to face major league
pitching in 2016 that following a nice showing in spring training, the
Yankees still seriously considered starting him out in Triple-A. Good
decision by Brian Cashman to take the plunge.
Judge raced out to a .303/.411/.750 slash
line for the month of April, a month in which he clocked 10 homers and
drove in 20 runs. He has not slowed since. That .303 mark is his lowest
average in any month this season. Heading into the All-Star break, he
has driven in 66 runs while slashing ..329/.448/.691. He leads the
majors in home runs (30), WAR (5.3) and his 208 total bases are second
only to Colorado's Charlie Blackmon.
After walking just nine times in 84 at-bats last year, he has drawn a
whopping 61 free passes in 301 at-bats during the current campaign. The
White Sox walked him intentionally with nobody on base during a June
game. Things have escalated to that level.
Even with all of the terrifying offensive
statistics to his name, though, some regression is almost certain on the
average front given his .426 BABIP. He is also on pace to strike out
more than 200 times. Despite the remaining holes in his swing -- he can
be beat on good fastballs up in the zone -- Judge has yet to hit any
sort of a sustained slump this year. It will be fascinating to see how
he adjusts when he falls on hard times. Which will presumably happen,
eventually, but even if he does find himself in a prolonged rut, I fully
expect him to be in the MVP conversation come September.
It's easy to say now, but coming into the season I was a believer in the Brewers offense. We knew about Ryan Braun and Jonathan Villar (although Villar has arguably been one of the season's biggest disappointments thus far), but guys like Keon Broxton, Eric Thames and Travis Shaw
(I had Shaw at No. 18 in our position rankings; he didn't make the
consensus top 20, unfortunately, so you'll just have to trust me) held
intrigue for me as well.
Domingo Santana
was among those of interest, and in the season's first half he proved
to be the Brewers outfielder to own. After a 2016 season cut short by
injury, the 24-year-old is hitting .291/.384/.497 with 15 homers, 50
RBI, 54 runs scored and nine steals at the break. His .372 BABIP and his
propensity for striking out (26.9 K% this year, and 31.4% for his
career) say he's likely going to hit somewhere closer to .260 when it's
all said and done, but nothing else in his batting profile screams
regression. He's just hitting the ball hard and he's being rewarded for
it, and his fantasy owners are, too.
I think Yonder Alonso
wears the crown for the biggest "out of nowhere" breakout. This is a
guy who was a complete fantasy dud for the first seven years of his
career. His career high for homers in a season was nine, and he had only
39 longballs in 664 career games. His career high for runs scored in a
season was 52 and his career high for RBI was 62. Coming into this
season his career slash line was .269/.334/.387. He was a decent contact
hitter with very little power. He was definitely NOT the sort of first
baseman that could help his fantasy owners win championships.
All that has changed this year. So far he
has a .275/.372/.562 triple slash with 20 home runs, 46 runs scored and
43 RBI in 79 games. He's already more than doubled his career high in
homers and if he keeps up this pace he could hit more home runs in 2017
than in his entire previous career combined. He is on pace to hit 36
home runs with 84 runs and 78 RBI, which would blow away all his career
highs.
Can he keep it up? His .302 BABIP this
season matches his .301 career BABIP, so we can't write off his newfound
success as mere luck. His 13.1% walk rate and 23.2% strikeout rate are
both career highs, indicating he is going deeper into counts looking for
that one pitch he can crush. His career-high 48.7% fly ball rate shows
he is looking to drive the ball in the air. His career-high 21.7% home
run per fly ball rate shows he is hitting the ball further than ever
before. His career-high 35.4% hard hit rate obviously shows he is
hitting the ball hard more often. None of these stats are out of line
with what we should expect from a stud power hitter. None of these stats
indicate his success is a fluke nor that it is likely to end soon.
He is simply a different hitter than he was
before. He has changed his approach at the plate. He now has the mindset
of a slugger rather than a contact hitter. He should continue to pile
up fantasy stats and guide his savvy owners to the top of the standings.
This year has been chock-full of surprises and I wish I could touch on all of them (Logan Morrison and Jason Vargas both came to mind), but in the interest of brevity I’ll go with Justin Smoak.
I mean did any of us see this coming? I sure didn’t. Smoak has shown
power in bursts—he slugged 20 jacks for Seattle in 2013—but he’s taken
it to a whole ‘nother level this year, swatting a home run every 13
at-bats for the Jays.
But that’s not even what’s impressed me the
most. Somehow Smoak is hitting a robust .294 at this juncture, which is
over 60 points higher than his career average. It’s pretty rare for a
guy to find the light like this so late in their career (Smoak turns 31
in December), but it’s not unheard of. Yonder Alonso has had a similar breakout at age 30, as Nick mentioned earlier.
While I could see Smoak’s average dipping a
bit in the second half, I wouldn’t expect too much regression. His
contact rate is way up from last year (80.5 percent compared to 72.0 in
2016), which suggests that he’s made real strides both in his plate
discipline and timing. He also plays in a hitter-friendly park at Rogers
Centre in Toronto and has plenty of lineup protection hitting between Josh Donaldson and Kendrys Morales. I think a .270 average with 35-40 homers and 90 or so ribbies is a pretty fair expectation for Smoak at this point.
One guy who has come out of nowhere to surprise me in the first half of the season is Angels' shortstop Andrelton Simmons.
He was considered an afterthought in fantasy drafts this spring, going
off the board as the 36th player at his position behind the likes of Ketel Marte and Gleyber Torres.
 |
| Gleyber Torres |
In 90 games prior to the All-Star break,
Simmons has performed capably as a five-category contributor. The
27-year-old is slashing .290/.341/.438 with nine homers, 41 runs scored,
39 RBI and 13 stolen bases. His counting stats have been boosted by
hitting in the middle of a weak Angels' lineup, but that isn't something
that is likely to change for the remainder of the season.
While the batting average would represent a
career-best mark for Simmons, he's doing it with only a .304 BABIP, so
it looks as though it should be sustainable. He also appears to be
seeing the ball better, evidenced by his walk rate (7.3%) which is also
the best mark of his career.
If there's one thing that may not be
sustainable in the second half, it could be the massive power surge that
he has experienced this season. Given the rate that balls are flying
out of the ballpark around the league though, who knows. Simmons has
shown power in the past, slugging 17 homers during his first full season
in 2013, though he had hit just 15 total over the next three seasons.
While he's hitting the ball in the air a little bit more, his fly ball
rate still sits under 30%. His HR/FB rate jumps off the page at 10.6%
which is nearly double his career mark and significantly higher than
even the 7.9% from his breakthrough 2013 campaign.
While he isn't likely to deliver another 20+
HR/SB in the second half, Simmons has proven to be a valuable asset in
mixed leagues and should continue to be a worthwhile option in the
middle infield.
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